16/10/2024

In the midst of escalating tensions between Israel and Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a sharp warning to the United Nations, urging them to take immediate action in relocating peacekeepers stationed in southern Lebanon. His message—delivered with unyielding urgency—comes at a critical juncture, as Israel grapples with increasing threats from Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group entrenched along Lebanon’s southern border. The warning carries implications not only for Israel’s security but for the broader stability of the region.

Image : reuters.com

Netanyahu made his appeal to the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, emphasizing that Hezbollah is using UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) peacekeepers as “human shields.” He called for their immediate withdrawal to avoid them becoming collateral in the potential conflict, which Israel views as increasingly imminent given Hezbollah’s aggressive posturing.

The prime minister’s address to the UN reflects growing fears that southern Lebanon could become a flashpoint in the already volatile Middle East, should Hezbollah choose to escalate its hostilities against Israel. Netanyahu’s directive to move peacekeepers “out of harm’s way” suggests that Israel might be preparing for a decisive military response to Hezbollah’s provocations, placing the region on the precipice of wider conflict.

A History of Fragile Peace

To fully understand the gravity of Netanyahu’s warning, one must first look at the complex relationship between Israel and Lebanon. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), established in 1978, has been stationed in the region for decades with the goal of maintaining a buffer between Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters. Initially deployed to confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon after its invasion that year, the peacekeeping mission evolved to monitor the cessation of hostilities after subsequent conflicts.

Since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, the peacekeepers have been tasked with enforcing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for a ceasefire and established terms to prevent further violence. UNIFIL, which has been stationed in Lebanon since 1978, plays a critical role in monitoring the ceasefire line between Israel and Lebanon, known as the “Blue Line,” established after the 2006 war. Although UNIFIL’s mandate was intended to ensure peace, the mission has been criticized for its limited success in curbing Hezbollah’s military activities. Hezbollah, backed by Iran and armed with tens of thousands of rockets, has gradually increased its influence in the region, leaving Israel and Lebanon in a state of tense stalemate.

Over the years, the southern Lebanese border has been a flashpoint for sporadic violence. Hezbollah’s extensive rocket arsenal and fortified positions along the border, combined with Israel’s high military alert, create an environment where any minor skirmish could escalate into full-scale conflict. Despite this, the UN peacekeeping forces have largely managed to maintain a fragile calm, though their presence is becoming increasingly precarious.

Hezbollah’s Growing Threat

In recent months, the situation on Israel’s northern border has become more fraught. The shadow of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza casts a long shadow, but the danger posed by Hezbollah in Lebanon is arguably more severe. Israeli intelligence estimates that Hezbollah has amassed over 150,000 rockets and missiles, many of them capable of reaching deep into Israeli territory. The group’s combat readiness, bolstered by its involvement in the Syrian civil war, has transformed Hezbollah from a guerrilla group into a highly organized military force.

In a televised address, Netanyahu highlighted this growing threat, warning that Hezbollah’s provocations could no longer be tolerated. “We are on the edge of a significant confrontation,” he said. “The threat from Hezbollah has reached an intolerable level, and Israel will not hesitate to act in defense of its citizens.”

Hezbollah has ramped up its hostile rhetoric, frequently threatening to attack Israeli cities. In response, Israel has fortified its northern border with additional troops, advanced missile defense systems, and heavy artillery. Tensions have flared, with sporadic exchanges of fire in recent weeks. According to Israeli military sources, Hezbollah operatives have been detected preparing attack tunnels, conducting surveillance, and stockpiling weapons near the border.

As these threats intensify, Netanyahu’s call to move the UN peacekeepers away from the danger zone underscores the increasing likelihood of conflict. “We value the efforts of the UN peacekeepers,” Netanyahu said, “but it is clear that their current deployment puts them directly in the path of potential danger. It is not a question of if Hezbollah will strike, but when.”

UNIFIL’s Vulnerable Position

UNIFIL has long operated in a difficult and dangerous environment. While their mandate is to prevent hostilities, the peacekeepers have limited authority to confront or disarm Hezbollah, which is widely regarded as the dominant military power in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah’s control over the region has grown steadily since the end of the Lebanese Civil War in 1990, and its power exceeds that of the Lebanese government in the south.

The group’s growing arsenal, built with substantial Iranian support, has altered the balance of power in the region. Though UNIFIL has tried to monitor Hezbollah’s movements, the reality is that the peacekeepers have little ability to stop Hezbollah from fortifying its positions. The peacekeepers, numbering around 10,000 troops, are ill-equipped to handle the type of warfare that Hezbollah might unleash.

Netanyahu’s concerns are not without merit. In the past, UNIFIL has found itself caught in the crossfire during skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah. During the 2006 war, several peacekeepers were killed when their observation posts were inadvertently struck by Israeli airstrikes. Should another war break out, the peacekeepers, who often operate in remote and under-defended outposts, would face severe risks.

In his address, Netanyahu stressed the importance of preemptively moving the peacekeepers to safer locations. “We call on the UN to relocate their personnel now, before it is too late,” Netanyahu said. “We do not want to see these brave men and women caught in the middle of a battle that could cost them their lives.”

UN Response and Regional Implications

The United Nations has yet to formally respond to Netanyahu’s warning, but diplomatic sources suggest that the issue is being discussed at the highest levels. There is recognition within the UN that the situation in southern Lebanon is becoming increasingly unstable. However, moving the peacekeepers would not be a simple decision. UNIFIL’s presence is seen by many in the international community as a necessary deterrent, even if its effectiveness has been questioned.

Diplomatic experts warn that withdrawing peacekeepers could embolden Hezbollah to increase its activities along the border, potentially drawing Lebanon into a broader conflict with Israel. For Lebanon, which is already grappling with a severe economic crisis, political instability, and the aftermath of the devastating 2020 Beirut explosion, another war with Israel could be catastrophic.

Furthermore, Hezbollah’s close ties to Iran mean that any conflict with Israel could have wider regional implications. Iran’s influence in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, combined with its contentious relationship with Israel, raises the possibility that any military action could spiral into a broader confrontation between Iran and Israel, with global ramifications.

The Bigger Picture: Israel, Iran, and the Middle East

Netanyahu’s warning comes at a time when the Middle East is undergoing rapid changes. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, have brought Israel closer to several Arab nations, shifting the regional dynamic. Israel’s growing partnerships with countries like the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have isolated Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah. This shifting political landscape could influence how any potential conflict unfolds.

Additionally, the Biden administration in the United States has been working to stabilize the region, though its efforts have been complicated by renewed tensions with Iran over its nuclear program. As Israel prepares for the possibility of conflict with Hezbollah, it is likely to seek assurances from its American allies, both in terms of military support and diplomatic backing.

Netanyahu’s warning to the UN can also be viewed as part of a broader Israeli strategy to garner international support before any major military action. By calling for the relocation of peacekeepers, Netanyahu is signaling that Israel is willing to take decisive action against Hezbollah but wants to minimize civilian and international casualties.

What Comes Next?

As the situation on Israel’s northern border continues to escalate, the international community is watching closely. Netanyahu’s warning to the UN is not just a call for precaution; it is a message that Israel is ready to take the fight to Hezbollah if necessary. Whether the UN will heed his warning and move its peacekeepers remains to be seen, but what is clear is that the region is on the brink of yet another potentially devastating conflict.

For now, the world waits to see whether diplomacy can avert war, or if the fragile peace between Israel and Hezbollah will finally break under the weight of rising tensions. As Netanyahu himself stated, “We do not seek war, but we will do whatever it takes to defend our people.”

Conclusion

The call to “move Lebanon peacekeepers out of harm’s way” reflects a moment of heightened urgency in an already unstable region. Netanyahu’s direct warning to the UN is as much a reflection of the imminent dangers posed by Hezbollah as it is a calculated move to prepare Israel and the world for the possibility of war. With Israel’s security on the line and Hezbollah’s threats looming large, the international community faces a critical decision on how to navigate this looming crisis.

Reference : http://www.bbc.com

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